Blog of Bonnie

February 6th, 2012 8:09 PM

Howard Vernick

DHS Mortgage Solutions

Office: 954-868-6879

Email: howard@DHS123.com

Staying in touch with the Market

Monday, February 06, 2012

This Week: Treasury will auction $72B of notes and bonds beginning Tuesday through Thursday. Economic data is rather sparse this week, most attention will be on how equity markets perform and the demand for US treasuries at the auctions. Monday morning likely will be quiet with stock indexes directing the bond and mortgage markets. The 10 yr note continues to trade under 2.00% but not likely to fall much more unless the situation in Europe deteriorates further. No progress over the Greek debt talks, it never seems to draw to a conclusion. Last week the employment data for Jan and the two ISM indexes were all better than forecasts, and to some extent refutes what the fed has been saying about the economic improvement. Interest rates will remain low as the fed wants but at present levels we do not see much more decline with the 10 yr finding strong resistance when is falls to 1.80% (currently 1.92%).

Posted by Ralph & Bonnie Mills on February 6th, 2012 8:09 PMPost a Comment (0)

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January 23rd, 2012 1:52 PM

Howard Vernick

DHS Mortgage Solutions

Office: 954-868-6879

Email: howard@DHS123.com

website:

Staying in touch with the Market

Sunday, January 22, 2012

This Week; after last week’s increase in rates this week has a lot of potential impact on rates. Treasury will auction $99B of notes ($35B 2 yrs on Tuesday, $35B of 5 yrs on Wednesday, and $29B of 7 yr notes on Thursday). Tuesday night the State of the Union address to Congress. Wednesday the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Friday the first look at Q4 GDP. Mixed in all of it, a few key economic reports. Technically, the 10yr treasury has broken its key averages at 2.02%, the MBS market also has moved below its 20 day average on the price, but still is holding its longer term 40 day average.

The FOMC meeting won’t likely have any new policy implications; the Fed will continue to keep the FF rate at 0.0% to 0.25% as Bernanke indicated months ago. We are not looking for another QE from the Fed; Europe for the moment has stabilized somewhat and the US economy is likely to have grown 3.1% in Q4. Europe’s impact on US markets has lessened recently with Italy and Spain able to auction debt at better rates than two months ago. The debt problems however, are far from being over, it will continue to be a factor throughout this year and at times roil US markets. We are looking for flat markets early this week.

Posted by Ralph & Bonnie Mills on January 23rd, 2012 1:52 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Posted by Ralph & Bonnie Mills on January 23rd, 2012 1:49 PMPost a Comment (0)

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January 16th, 2012 2:33 PM

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Howard Vernick
DHS Mortgage Solutions
Office: 954-868-6879
Email: howard@DHS123.com
website:

This Week; of course it is still most about Europe, the saga that won’t go away, and likely not for years. Treasury rates ended last week at 1.87%. Mortgage rates continue to decline in the MBS market but lenders that buy the loans have not been pricing to the MBS market, holding prices lower than the market itself. The increased fees to finance the 2.0% social security tax cut financed by home buyers and re-financers is causing disruptions in pricing. Some lenders have used the fee increase to increase gains from originators by setting prices much lower than MBS markets trade---over and above making the price adjustments for the fee increases. Watch your lenders and compare MBS prices we report to how your lender is treating you.
This week a few key economic reports that will get traders’ attention; PPI, CPI, Philly Fed business index, Housing starts and permits as well as Dec existing home sales and weekly jobless claims all on tap (see economic calendar). US interest rate markets continue to hold well, at the same time the long end including mortgages is struggling to keep a positive bias. Europe’s travails and this week’s economic data should define whether rates will move lower. That said, with rate increases due to Congress using Fannie, Freddie and FHA to finance the social security tax cut, mortgage rates are not likely to fall much more even if US treasury markets improve somewhat. We remain skeptical on the longer term outlook for rates, rates are likely to increase a little this year with the economy improving. The wild card now is the Fed (Europe is always a wild card on a day-to-day basis); last week there were some that were floating the idea of another easing move from the Fed, still a minority view however. On the 24th and 25th the FOMC meets, likely there will be discussions on the subject.
Posted by Ralph & Bonnie Mills on January 16th, 2012 2:33 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Daily Real Estate News | Thursday, January 12, 2012

Fannie Mae says it will be providing more mortgage aid to the unemployed, possibly extending the forbearance period to up to a year to those who qualify. 

Starting on March 1, Fannie Mae will require mortgage servicers to extend the forbearance relief to qualified unemployed borrowers for six months — without any approval needed from Fannie Mae. The government-sponsored enterprise also says special consideration will be made for some borrowers in suspending mortgage payments or reducing them for up to a 12-month period. 

Fannie’s announcement follows on the heels of Freddie Mac’s announcement earlier this week about similar changes to its mortgage relief program for the unemployed. Freddie Mac announced it will begin offering a 12-month forbearance period to qualified unemployed borrowers starting on Feb. 1. 

To qualify, mortgage servicers will determine if the “borrower has less than 12 months worth of mortgage payments in reserves and has monthly housing expenses above 31 percent of their incomes before extending a forbearance plan,” HousingWire reports.

During the third quarter of 2011, the GSEs issued more than 7,000 forbearance plans, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. 

Source: “Fannie Mae Unveils new Forbearance Program for Unemployed,” HousingWire (Jan. 11, 2012)

Posted by Ralph & Bonnie Mills on January 12th, 2012 4:04 PMPost a Comment (0)

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